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Belief in importance of economic data and mean reversion persists
Two experts debate the future of the discipline
Economic predictions presented as precise numbers are far from that in reality
New paper shows drop in conceptions is evident before economy starts to contract
By trashing their own internal evidence, ministers risk following a dishonest plan
Its forecasts have been consistently wrong and are distorting policy
Wealth will roughly quintuple by 2118, with global income of $80,000 per person
The profession is adrift, but it is a constructive sort of drift
Its growth outlook has almost halved in two years, uniting economists against it
Investment group has designed a ‘more rigorous analytical framework’ to spot downturns
Funds focused on forecasting big economic trends have struggled amid low volatility
The country is not in recession but living standards are down and voters are angry
Big winners are the usual suspects among the advisers, who cranked up fees to £74m
The record of predictions based on demography is not impressive, writes John Plender
Academics criticise Treasury and BBC for making whole profession look wrong
UK’s statisticians should focus on stemming market-sensitive leaks of their data
‘Muddling through’ most likely but more dramatic outcomes cannot be discounted
International Edition