Transcript: Swamp Notes — What’s the Republican party’s position on abortion?

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Swamp Notes — What’s the Republican party’s position on abortion?’

Sonja Hutson
For decades, Republican politicians and activists wanted to see Roe v Wade overturned. But now that they’ve succeeded, they’ve opened up a whole new can of worms.

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This is Swamp Notes, the weekly podcast from the FT News Briefing, where we talk about all of the things happening in the 2024 US presidential election. I’m Sonja Hutson, and this week we’re asking: why are Republicans flip-flopping on abortion? Here with me to discuss is Rana Foroohar. She’s the FT’s global business columnist. Hi, Rana.

Rana Foroohar
Hey. How are you?

Sonja Hutson
Doing well. Thanks. And we’ve also got James Politi. He is the FT’s Washington bureau chief. Hey, James.

James Politi
Hey. Nice to be here.

Sonja Hutson
So this week, the Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on abortion that sent a bit of a shockwave across the country. James, can you break down for us what this ruling would do?

James Politi
Well, this ruling would outlaw abortion in almost all cases. There are very few exceptions. In fact, there’s only one which is the life of the mother. But it would be outlawed even in the cases of rape and incest. It would allow it to be enforced within 14 days. And let’s remember, this is a law that was enacted in 1864 at the time of the Civil War. Arizona wasn’t even a state at the time. Women did not have the right to vote at that time. And, so it’s just sent shockwaves through a vital swing state in the 2024 election.

Sonja Hutson
And how did Arizona state officials, as well as national politicians, respond to the ruling?

Rana Foroohar
You know, I think Democrats were, although horrified, you know, in terms of women’s right to choose being taken away, I think politically, they were actually galvanised by this. It’s kind of an easy win, because abortion is one of these issues where Trump and the Republicans in general are just not in line with what the majority of the country feels.

Sonja Hutson
So I want to talk a little bit more about Trump, because not only did he respond to this ruling, he also put out this pretty lengthy video outlining his abortion policy earlier in the week. What did we learn from that video?

James Politi
Well, what he said is that abortion should be left to the states.

Donald Trump voice clip
My view is, now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be . . . 

James Politi
And he did not support a specific national ban on abortion, which some kind of anti-abortion activists and lawmakers had been pushing for.

Donald Trump voice clip
You must follow your heart on this issue, but remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and in fact, to save our country, which is currently and very sadly . . . 

James Politi
And it was his attempt to kind of create a middle ground or to stake out a middle-ground position on abortion. But it backfired within 24 hours because then the Arizona ruling came out and Democrats could say, see what happens when you leave abortion up to the states. They can enact some of the most draconian legislation in the country. And so it’s turned into a bit of a political disaster for Trump.

Rana Foroohar
One thing that’s interesting to me is, as James said, this middle ground that he’s so desperately trying to seek out is not easy for him. It puts him in a tough place when talking to evangelicals, when talking to Christian nationalists that form part of his base. I definitely think the last few years in general and the overturning of Roe has just opened a huge can of worms. And I would say it’s on both sides. I think Republicans are having to think very, very carefully about how these really extreme positions square with just where the majority of the country is. I also think it’s opened up some new awareness on the left. And I mean, I will cop to the fact that I grew up as, you know, a woman who always had the right to choose in this country, a little bit maybe more apathetic or just disconnected from the abortion rights struggle than my mother, who’s 76 and actually lived through in college seeing women in Tennessee, where she went to school, getting back-alley abortions, not being able to get healthcare, dying in some cases. And so she was just outraged and marching right away. And I think now there’s a generation of women like me. I have a daughter who we’re kind of like, OK, wait a minute, wait. This is the biggest deal, we have to really get serious about this. And I think there’s some of those women moderates on the right, too.

James Politi
I think on the Democratic side, the challenge for the election is going to be to really pin this, be able to pin this specifically on Donald Trump, because the overturning of Roe v Wade happened in the middle of Joe Biden’s presidency. And so to be able to make the connection between the Supreme Court justices that were appointed by Trump and Trump himself, even as he tries to muddy the waters with a different, you know, more middle of the road, ambiguous position, is gonna be the main, main challenge. And in fact, the Biden campaign has already released an ad saying, when looking at the the Arizona law, you know, Trump did this, they want to make sure that the attack really sticks to Trump.

Rana Foroohar
How pivotal do you think the issue of abortion is gonna be in this election cycle?

James Politi
I think it’s gonna be one of the big issues. It may be the biggest issue, but it’s hard to tell at the moment. We know that in 2022, voters did really respond to the overturning of Roe v Wade, and it allowed Democrats to overperform in the midterm elections. Democrats have been winning on the ground in state and local elections ever since then, and it’s been able to mobilise the base and attract other voters. So I definitely would not discount the power of abortion. And in fact, when push comes to shove, this may end up being in some ways a referendum on abortion in November. And if it is, very likely that would benefit Biden.

Rana Foroohar
That makes sense to me because, you know, things are so neck and neck that an issue like this that pulls away Republican soccer moms from Donald Trump could have a really big impact.

Sonja Hutson
Yeah. And, you know, because of the way this election is shaping up, it will come down to a lot of, what is the term, soccer moms in the Philly suburbs, because of those really, really critical swing states, Pennsylvania being one of them. I’m also curious, do you think that Republicans are actually changing their minds, actually rallying around this new abortion position? Or is this just political posturing that is gonna change again down the road? Like, how should we understand this moment?

Rana Foroohar
I personally think it’s posturing. I think that Republicans are gonna have to moderate on this issue. It just, it’s not winnable otherwise. If you look particularly at younger voters coming up, it’s just, they’re just not in this incredibly extreme place. And so I don’t see how it can’t change. I’m really interested too to see and I’m curious, James, if you have any insight on this. What comes after Roe legislatively? You know, obviously down the line and it would depend on the make-up of Congress. But what happens now? When do we get another bill at the federal level?

James Politi
Well, I mean, I think, you know, Biden has promised that if he wins and he has the majorities that he needs, he’s gonna look for a bill in Congress to codify Roe v Wade into federal law, which would be a huge deal on the Democratic side. I think that, you know, if Trump wins and has his own majorities, you can’t rule out a national ban at, say, like 15 weeks or something like that. And I think the, one of the more interesting things I think, legislatively, is in the states and, you know, in the pre-Roe era, Republicans made huge advances in winning state legislative races. They dominated many of them. They have had solid majorities in a number of states which have been responsible for this kind of draconian abortion restrictions. And I think the question is: are Democrats gonna start winning state legislatures again in a more sort of sweeping way than they have in the past?

Sonja Hutson
All right. We’re gonna take a quick break. And when we come back, we’ll do Exit Poll.

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Sonja Hutson
And we are back with Exit Poll, where we talk about something that didn’t happen on the campaign trail, and apply rigorous political analysis to it. So Ron Klain, who is Biden’s former chief of staff, told an audience on Tuesday night that his old boss is just a little too obsessed with bridges. Here is a quote from that speech: He does two or three events a week where he’s cutting a ribbon on a bridge. Look, it’s an effing bridge, like it’s a bridge. And how interesting is the bridge? It’s a little interesting, but it’s not a lot interesting. Really powerful stuff, I know. But James and Rana, is he right? Is Biden a little too obsessed with bridges?

Rana Foroohar
Yeah, I have a very strong opinion on this. Absolutely not. Bridges are the bomb. You know, first of all, it’s infrastructure, right? And this is the infrastructure president, biggest package since the Eisenhower era. But I wrote a recent column, actually last week on the connection between the collapse of the Baltimore bridge, the disaster that is Boeing, the slump in the US EV market, and the fact that we can’t build our own commercial container ships anymore. It’s all part of the same problem. We have no real industrial strategy, and we haven’t invested in a serious way since the New Deal. We’ve simply been leveraging the rewards of that. And that’s what Bidenomics is all about. So I say, Joe, stay on those bridges.

James Politi
I found it especially funny because actually, like, if you think about it, Biden hasn’t been to a lot of bridges in the last few weeks. I mean, he went to one which was very sadly tragic, the Baltimore bridge that collapsed a few weeks ago. But talking to people at the campaign, they were saying that actually, he hasn’t really gone to many bridges. I realise, you know, he has been to factories. He has been touting Bidenomics investments, but he hasn’t been maybe as obsessed with bridges as Ron Klain, who is normally, you know, his biggest champion, is criticising him for it.

Sonja Hutson
All right. Well, Biden administration, if you’re listening to this, Rana wants more bridges.

Rana Foroohar
(Laughter) And more bridge pics. I want a selfie on a bridge.

Sonja Hutson
I want to thank our guests. Rana Foroohar, the FT’s global business columnist. Thanks, Rana.

Rana Foroohar
Thank you.

Sonja Hutson
And James Politi, the FT’s Washington bureau chief. Thanks, James.

James Politi
Thanks for having me.

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Sonja Hutson
Just a quick note before we go. You don’t need us to remind you that this is shaping up to be one of the most important elections in US history, but it won’t just be Americans who are impacted by the outcome. So we want to hear from you regardless of where you live. How do you think the election will affect you and your country? There’s a link in our show notes where you can record an audio message telling us what you think, and we might just feature it in an upcoming story.

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This was Swamp Notes, the US politics show from the FT News Briefing. If you want to sign up for the Swamp Notes newsletter, we’ve got a link to that in the show notes. Our show is mixed and produced by Ethan Plotkin. It’s also produced by Lauren Fedor. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson. I’m your host, Sonja Hutson. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz, and Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Check back next week for more US political analysis from the Financial Times.