North Macedonia’s rightwing party sweeps to power in setback for EU talks

North Macedonia’s rightwing opposition has won parliamentary elections and a presidential run-off on Wednesday, a victory that threatens to complicate membership talks with the EU.

With nearly all votes counted, the VMRO is set to control 58 of the 120 seats in parliament, according to the state election commission. Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, a 70-year-old law professor backed by the VMRO, will be the country’s first female president after she won the largely ceremonial post in a run-off against incumbent leftist Stevo Pendarovski.

The Balkan nation, a Nato member, is seeking to join the EU, but its entry to the bloc has been blocked for years by Greece and more recently by Bulgaria.

The VMRO and Siljanovska-Davkova have said they would resist external pressure to change the constitution to include a reference to the country’s ethnic Bulgarian minority, a precondition for Bulgaria to lift its veto on EU accession talks.

Responding to a post on the social media platform X from EU enlargement commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, Siljanovska-Davkova said on Thursday that the “citizens of Macedonia remain deeply committed to full integration of our country in the EU” — calling the country by its unofficial name.

The new president has in the past questioned a 2019 agreement that ended a dispute with Greece and saw the Balkan country change its name to North Macedonia, but during a campaign debate clarified that she would stand by the agreement.

VMRO was last in power in 2017. A year earlier Nikola Gruevski’s premiership ended amid a corruption scandal that forced him into exile in Hungary and landed him a seven-year jail sentence in absentia.

Together with minor other parties, VMRO should have enough seats to create a coalition.

“There is a Gruevski scenario,” said Dimitar Bechev, an analyst at Carnegie Europe, alluding to a return to a nationalist and authoritarian approach. “There were promises during the campaign to reverse things to get a better deal from the EU.”

Branimir Jovanović, a researcher at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, said the “stronger than expected” win boosted VMRO’s ability to set the agenda both on EU talks and domestic policies.

“They can pick their partners. [Incoming premier Hristijan] Mickovski said he would probably pick a pro-EU ethnic Albanian party, which signals they are not against necessary constitutional changes.”

He said the question was when the new government decided to introduce the constitutional amendment on the Bulgarian minority that was a precondition for EU accession, adding that Skopje might wait for European parliament and elections in some member states later this year.

Jovanović noted that the constitutional amendment required a two-thirds majority, which necessitated broader co-operation than the coalition it needs to advance its legislative agenda, and warned that the EU path remained fraught with challenges.

“The constitutional change is just the first thing,” he said. “Then you can start negotiation talks, but to enter the EU you have to fulfil several more Bulgarian conditions, and Sofia has a veto . . . all along the way.”

If Mickovski did agree to a constitutional change to include the Bulgarian minority, he would need to “find a fig leaf” to avoid the appearance of bending to Bulgaria, Bechev said.

On Wednesday night, Mickovski accused the outgoing leftist government of graft and nepotism.

“The crime, the corruption, the incompetence, the false values ​​they advocated, the confiscated state . . . made the state suffer and the people disappointed,” Mickovski told supporters. “Tonight they are finally defeated.”

In his concession speech, the leftist former prime minister Dimitar Kovačevski warned of the stakes.

“Next year is an opportunity for Macedonia to continue its European integration,” he said. “If we miss that chance, we could lose another decade, maybe even another generation.”