Hollande faces new election test

Unemployment has hit 10 per cent, growth has stalled and the eurozone crisis has made an ominous return, but an opinion poll offers a reassuring picture for François Hollande, France’s new president, three days before he faces important national assembly elections.

Surprisingly, the BVA poll published on Thursday suggests 53 per cent of French voters are confident about the country’s economic future – a whopping 20-point jump from the previous survey before the Socialist leader was elected last month.

It appears to be a vote of confidence in the new president’s much vaunted promise to relaunch growth, his push back against German-led austerity policies and moves such as his promise to increase the minimum wage. These actions have all been taken with an eye to consolidating his power in the parliamentary elections, which take place over two rounds on June 10 and June 17.

Under France’s political system, which splits power between the Elysée palace and the legislature, a new president cannot fully engage his policy gears without securing control of the assembly.

For Mr Hollande, the nightmare would be for the centre-right UMP, the party of his vanquished predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, to hold on to its majority, forcing him into an awkward cross-party “cohabitation” – replacing his Socialist-led government with one led by his political rivals.

That prospect seems unlikely, according to opinion polls this week showing the Socialists and their allies in the Green and other leftist groups winning control of the 577-seat assembly.

“Cohabitation” has happened in the past – the Socialists were last in government a decade ago under right-of-centre president Jacques Chirac – but the electoral timetable allows an incoming president to profit from his electoral momentum. A Viavoice poll in the leftist newspaper Liberation this week showed 59 per cent of voters in favour of Mr Hollande securing a majority.

“I don’t expect a surprise,” says Zaki Laidi, professor at Sciences-Po university. “I think the Socialists will get a majority alone or with the greens.”

But there are enough uncertainties going into the election to make the outcome unpredictable, stemming mainly from the big votes in the first round of the presidential election in late April by the far-right National Front and, to a lesser extent, by the Communist-backed Left Front.

Mr Hollande will not want to have to rely for his majority on the Left Front, led by the fiery Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is fighting his own private battle against Marine Le Pen, the equally charismatic National Front leader, in a constituency in northern France.

The need to limit the advance of the Left Front helps explain Mr Hollande’s concentration in his early weeks in power on policies such as the restoration of the right to retire at 60 for some workers – and his refusal to spell out just how deep spending cuts will have to be to meet France’s fiscal commitments.

Mr Mélenchon wants to stay out of government and act as a brake on austerity policies. But even if the Left Front does well, Prof Laidi points out that it is dominated internally by the Communist party, which has a history of working with the Socialists.

“It would be a mistake to think that, even if [Mr Hollande] has to rely on the Left Front, its parliamentary members will stick to the Mélenchon line,” Prof Laidi says.

As in April, the headlines in Sunday’s first round might be stolen by Marine Le Pen. Polls put support for the National Front at around 15 per cent. But Ms Le Pen won 18 per cent in the presidential poll and she senses a breakthrough.

The party, which currently has no assembly seats, is hindered by the complex electoral system which works against small parties unable to make alliances with bigger ones. But she led the field in 23 constituencies in the presidential election, and polls suggest the party could win seats after the second round on June 17.

“One would be a success, two would be a triumph, 10 would be a revolution,” says Ms Le Pen.

Her main target is the UMP as she aims to force a realignment of the right. On Sunday, her hope is to qualify for the second round in up to 150 constituencies (all candidates who win 12.5 per cent of the local electoral roll go through), putting pressure on the UMP to make deals with the party to avoid letting in the left because of a split vote on the right.

The UMP leadership has flatly refused any negotiations. But at local level, some members are ready to do a deal – exactly the kind of division Ms Le Pen is out to exploit.