Golan dangers mount as Hizbollah ditches battle ‘rules’

For Israelis and Lebanese, Hizbollah’s border attack this week brought back uncomfortable memories of the start of their 2006 war, which left hundreds dead and ruined swaths of Lebanon.

Hizbollah‘s operation was in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed six of its fighters and an Iranian general in Syria the previous week. On Wednesday one of the group’s missiles struck an Israeli military vehicle along the border, killing two soldiers and wounding seven. The incident prompted an Israeli response that is thought to have killed a Spanish peacekeeper in southern Lebanon.

But while the skirmishes have parallels with the launch of the 2006 war, nine years on the local dynamics have shifted. Lebanon’s Shia force has developed from a resistance group into a formidable foe entangled in regional conflicts and any escalation with Israel risks a devastating region-wide conflagration.

There are worrying signs that the conflict in neighbouring Syria is forcing a shift in the “rules” that have kept the peace for nearly a decade — and that the Golan Heights has become a flashpoint.

Israel and Hizbollah have fought “by the playbook” since 2006 with containable skirmishes, said analyst Timur Goksel, a former UN peacekeeper on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

“Israel can turn Lebanon into a parking lot in half a day and Hizbollah knows that. But Israel now also risks a very heavy price for that kind of attack, and they know it too.”

By carefully targeting the militarised Shebaa Farms region, which is occupied by Israel’s army but claimed by Lebanon, Hizbollah on Wednesday, in the group’s view, calibrated its response, demonstrating its might without threatening escalation.

But unlike in 2006, when Hizbollah’s only experience was as a guerrilla force battling Israel, the group is now learning to fight like an army, taking and holding territory in Syria alongside President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Iraqi Shia militias. The group’s presence is critical to Mr Assad’s survival.

Hizbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, told his followers in a speech on Friday that the group did not want war but “after the attack [by Israel] . . . and the response in Shebaa Farms, we in Lebanon’s Islamic resistance are no longer interested in anything called ‘rules of battle’.

“That’s over,” he continued. “We will no longer respect any constraints on fronts or battle grounds.”

Some Hizbollah members have hinted that the group is mobilising for potential escalation of the conflict with Israel. “They announced a full call-up,” one fighter said, adding that combatants’ movements were also being restricted for security reasons.

Such a war could shake a region already convulsed in conflict. Sunni militants linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) as well as al-Qaeda’s local wing, Jabhat al-Nusra, now under attack by a US-led international coalition, are just over the border in Syria and could easily join the fray. Damascus and Tehran could also be dragged into a fight with Israel, risking the collapse of Mr Assad’s regime.

There are fears that the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory mostly occupied by Israel since the 1967 war, and the same region where Israel hit the Hizbollah fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guard general — is a potential trigger point.

Jabhat al-Nusra forces now control much of the area bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan. But Israel is more worried by the growing presence of Hizbollah and Iran, which are helping Mr Assad in his fight against the Sunni militants.

Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week Iran was using Hizbollah to establish a front against Israel in the Golan, and warned that they would “pay the full price”.

In Lebanon, some observers worry that Hizbollah and Iran’s operations will inevitably link southern Lebanon’s fate to the Golan. “They could tie Lebanon militarily to Syria,” said Nabil Bou Monsef, an analyst and editor at al-Nahar newspaper.

Hizbollah fighters give a more straightforward reason for their interest in the Golan: it is a back door to their stronghold in southern Lebanon, which they believe Israel may actively encourage al-Qaeda to enter. Israel is already known to allow wounded militants across the border into its territory. Hizbollah argues that the co-operation goes further.

“Israel could pass the militants information, supplies . . . it could protect a staging ground for them,” said Akl Hamie, a former Lebanese Shia militia leader with ties to Hizbollah and Iran, both of which he says have been running reconnaissance in the Golan. “They want to examine the border area . . . and how to divide it from Lebanon,” he said.

Keeping tensions from flaring on the Golan could be key to preventing the regional escalation that most parties fear. But it may require Israel tolerating a Hizbollah presence, which it seems reluctant to accept.

“Whether this becomes a war is Israel’s choice to make,” Mr Bou Monsef said. “Do they want the adventure of a border with al-Qaeda? Or with a familiar enemy playing by the same rules since 2006? The ball is in their court.”