UK general election latest: YouGov poll gives Labour 212-seat majority

In the FT’s latest Political Fix podcast, host Lucy Fisher is joined by columnist Robert Shrimsley, political editor George Parker and political correspondent Anna Gross to discuss the parties’ campaign strategies and look ahead to the results.

Disgraced former Conservative MP Owen Paterson will receive a civil penalty for failing to declare paid lobbying on behalf of testing company Randox during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Registrar of Consultant Lobbyists published a note on Wednesday outlining its intention to issue Patterson with the penalty for failing to register paid lobbying work.

UK law states that a person must not carry out consultant lobbying without entering their activities in a public register.

The Registrar issued a similar penalty last year but retracted it on the grounds that Paterson was not VAT registered. Entities must be VAT registered to be entered in the registry.

In its fresh investigation, the registrar found that “Mr Paterson was VAT registered at the time” he lobbied ministers.

It noted that Paterson “was a paid consultant for Randox Laboratories” and personally made “eight direct communications” to the health secretary in 2020 on the company’s behalf.

The former cabinet minister resigned in 2021 after the parliamentary watchdog ruled that his lobbying was unlawful.

An English police force’s inquiry into comments recorded by undercover observers of Reform UK party activists in Essex has concluded that none of the remarks constituted a criminal offence.

Essex Police launched an investigation following the screening last week of a report by Channel 4 news featuring racist and anti-Muslim remarks by activists supporting Nigel Farage’s campaign in Clacton, Essex.

Andrew Parker, one of the activists, used a racial slur against Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, while another activist made homophobic remarks.

Sunak subsequently condemned the remarks and said it had been hurtful for his daughters to hear the racial slurs.

“Having assessed the comments made during a Channel 4 news programme, and all other information available to us, we have concluded that no criminal offences have taken place,” Essex Police said in a statement.

The Sun has endorsed Labour for the first time in almost two decades, with a football-themed front page declaring that it is “time for a new manager”.

“By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in No 10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge,” the newspaper said.

“The insurmountable problem faced by the Tories is that — over the course of 14 often chaotic years — they have become a divided rabble, more interested in fighting themselves than running the country.”

The Sun also backed Labour in 1997, 2001, and 2005 under Tony Blair.

Many other traditionally Conservative media groups, including The Economist and The Sunday Times, have also supported Labour ahead of the election on Thursday — as much from a loss of faith in the Tories as a full-throttle backing of Keir Starmer’s party.

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Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has acknowledged that “polls suggest” the Conservatives will lose the election, but said the party was “working to make sure the polls are wrong”.

Asked on the BBC’s Politics Live if the Conservatives could still win the election, Heaton-Harris said: “I think there are lots of votes at play.”

He added: “You fight to the bitter end — no matter what’s happening.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has insisted that he is “feeling good” ahead of the election on Thursday, even after repeatedly warning that polling suggests that Labour will win a “supermajority”.

Sunak told ITV’s This Morning: “It has been a difficult few years and I’m the first to say that we haven’t got everything right . . . but tomorrow is a choice about our future.” 

Asked if he was planning a special meal for election night, Sunak said: “My favourite meal, generally, is sandwiches.”

He added that he intended to continue his polling day tradition of getting a “special election pie” from a local butchers in his constituency of Richmond and Northallerton.

Sir Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrat candidate for Chippenham Sarah Gibson ride in an Austin 7 during a campaign event in Chippenham.

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “not worried in the slightest” about Boris Johnson’s last-minute intervention in the general election, claiming the former prime minister was “exhibit A” for his argument that the Tories had presided over 14 years of chaos. 

The Labour leader was asked by reporters in Wales if he was worried about Johnson’s comeback in a speech on Tuesday night. 

“Oh no, I’m not worried in the slightest. Having argued for six weeks that they’re chaotic and divided, to bring out sort of Exhibit A with 24 hours to go just vindicated the argument I’ve been making,” he said.

Johnson was ejected by his own MPs after a turbulent period involving multiple scandals including illegal parties in Downing Street during the Covid pandemic lockdown. 

“I’m only assuming that sometime about lunchtime today there’ll be a joint press conference from Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak on economic stability for the country going forward,” Starmer added.

Voters are being reminded to bring photographic identification with them when they head to the ballot box on Thursday, in what will be the first UK general election to require proof of ID. 

“It needs to be an original version, copies and pictures won’t be accepted,” said Craig Westwood, director of communications at the Electoral Commission, an independent body that oversees elections in the UK. 

The requirement, which came into effect last year with the aim of averting election fraud, has raised concern that marginalised groups that may be less likely to hold valid forms of ID could be excluded from participating in the electoral process.

Acceptable forms of ID include a passport, driving licence or older person’s bus pass.

Sir Keir Starmer will spend the final campaign day shuttling between Scotland, England and Wales on Wednesday, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be trying to shore up the vote in the Tory heartlands in England’s south-east.

The Labour leader is starting the day in Carmarthenshire, Wales, before heading up to East Kilbride, near Glasgow, and then back down to Redditch in Worcestershire.

Sunak, meanwhile, is campaigning in the Conservative heartlands of south-east England. His schedule takes him to Hampshire, where polls suggest some long-held Tory seats may be vulnerable on Thursday, particularly to the Liberal Democrats.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey will also be hitting the Tory “blue wall”, stopping off in Chippenham, Winchester, and Harpenden.

Labour’s national campaigns co-ordinator Pat McFadden has hit back at Conservative warnings of a Labour “supermajority” and insisted that his party would keep fighting “until tomorrow night at 10pm”.

McFadden told Sky News: “I think it’s disrespectful to the electorate to call the outcome of election before people have gone to the polls.”

He added: “How many Labour MPs do the Conservatives think we’re allowed to have? They don’t actually get to dictate the outcome.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this morning urged voters to “stop the Labour supermajority that will put up your taxes”.

Labour is heading for the biggest “landslide majority” Britain has ever seen, according to one of Rishi Sunak’s closest ministerial allies, as he in effect conceded defeat in Thursday’s general election.

Mel Stride, work and pensions secretary, told the BBC: “I totally accept that where the polls are at the moment means that tomorrow is likely to see the largest Labour landslide majority that this country has ever seen.”

Speaking to Times Radio, Stride urged voters not to give the Labour party a “supermajority”.

“We accept that we are facing up to 10 years of a Labour government,” he said.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer featured in the headlines on the penultimate day of the campaign. He defended himself against Tory criticism of him wanting to spend time with his family, and tried to explain his taking £76,000 of free junkets and clothes during the last parliament. Also on Tuesday:

• Boris Johnson made a last-minute intervention in the Conservative election campaign, urging wavering Tory voters to stick with the party rather than allow Starmer to enjoy a “sledgehammer majority”.

• Starmer urged ministers and the Royal Mail to “get on with the job” and sort out problems with the delivery of postal votes.

• Starmer played down the idea of a reshuffle if Labour wins Thursday’s general election.

• The head of the electoral commission said the postal vote system may be “creaking” under the volume of votes and the timescale of the snap election.

• A Reform UK candidate defected to the Conservatives, the second in the past few days to do so following a backlash over racist remarks made by party activists.

• Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said “more money” was not the solution to the challenges facing the NHS.

• Rishi Sunak insisted that the Conservatives have not given up on winning the election.

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