Why Belgium’s far right is set to win the election — but not independence

Good morning. Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda has comfortably won re-election, receiving roughly 75 per cent of yesterday’s vote with almost all ballots counted.

Today, Laura reports on the threat of a Belgian break-up that could stem from a far-right victory in next month’s election, and I preview the depressing discussions at today’s meeting of EU foreign ministers.

Scheming for secession

In Belgium’s upcoming elections, a party that wants to split up the country is expected to become the biggest winner. But the road to Flemish independence is still a long way off, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: On June 9, Belgians elect their federal and regional governments. As the country is divided into Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia, plus the bilingual capital Brussels, citizens cast votes for regional parties, who then have to form a federal coalition. Often, chaos and delays ensue.

For the first time, the Flemish far-right Vlaams Belang is expected to become the largest party with 26 of 150 seats in the federal parliament, and is polling first at around 26 per cent in Flanders.

“If we have a democratic majority, we will strive for independence,” VB party leader Tom Van Grieken told the FT.

Van Grieken explains that “we do not feel represented in the Belgian country,” complaining that the wealthy Flanders has to foot the bill for less affluent Wallonia.

His aim is to negotiate with Wallonia after the elections and, if they refuse, simply go it alone: “We will have a declaration of independence.”

But to push ahead with this plan, Vlaams Belang will need the support of nationalist N-VA, which governs the region and is projected to become the second-largest force in Flanders — and they don’t seem inclined.

“We are trying to offer a realistic path towards a better model of political representation for the Flemish people,” N-VA chief Bart De Wever said, explaining that this would entail more autonomous governance for both regions. All-out secession would be “a chaotic strategy which would ultimately weaken the voice for more Flemish autonomy”, De Wever said.

Other parties also believe that Vlaams Belang’s strategy won’t work. This is because it remains unclear what will happen to Brussels, which Vlaams Belang sees as the capital of its future country, or to membership of the EU — a crucial question for the city that hosts its institutions.

“I don’t think it will happen because they have no solution,” says Peter Mertens, general secretary of the far-left Workers’ party. “They want to create a political standstill after the elections, to have no government after the elections.”

Researchers also believe that few people, including Vlaams Belang voters, support independence. “Only a very, very small minority of Belgians, also on the Flemish side, are in favour of splitting up the country,” says Didier Caluwaerts of the Free University Brussels (VUB).

“It’s going to be difficult making policies,” Caluwaerts predicts of the period after the elections. “But the country splitting up, that’s not immediately going to happen.”

Chart du jour: Wolfpack

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As rewilding opens up habitats for wolves across Europe, the debate over whether to coexist with the animals or control their numbers grows.

Neighbourhood watch

EU foreign ministers meet today to discuss the state of the bloc’s neighbours. The view is grim.

Context: Ukraine is suffering from daily Russian bombing attacks and steadily losing territory in the war-torn east. Georgia’s government is pushing ahead with a “foreign agents” law that Brussels has said will end its EU membership ambitions.

Finding ways to get more weapons to Ukraine will top the agenda of today’s meeting. That includes both pushing still-reluctant member states to donate more artillery and air defence components, and trying to find a way around Hungary’s new block on sending cash to Kyiv raised from immobilised Russian assets.

After that, ministers will turn to Georgia. Many EU countries are keen to discuss ways to put more pressure on Tbilisi not to enact the “foreign agents” law, which would force media and civil society groups who receive foreign funding to register with the government.

Some capitals think that threatening to end a programme allowing Georgians visa-free travel to the EU would force a climbdown. Others fear that it would only make the situation worse by punishing ordinary citizens who have protested against the legislation.

“The fate of our country is in our hands,” Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili said in a speech yesterday. “We have to make a crucial choice: either a European, democratic, independent Georgia, or a Russian-led, authoritarian, and isolated Georgia.”

What to watch today

1. EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels, arrivals from 7.15am.

2. French President Emmanuel Macron on a state visit to Germany, until tomorrow.

3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Madrid.

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