Why EU countries are split over recognising Palestine

Good morning. Here’s an extraordinary story to start: The Russian army is now recruiting suspected criminals to fight in Ukraine, offering pre-trial suspects conscription instead of court, as Moscow seeks to keep bolstering its forces fighting in Ukraine.

Today, our correspondents across the continent analyse the deep fractures in the EU over recognising Palestine as a state, and bring you the latest on the next sanctions package targeting Russia.

United in disunity

Back in January, Ireland’s foreign minister Micheál Martin gathered a group of European peers for dinner in Brussels to build a coalition in favour of Palestinian statehood. Weeks of shuttle diplomacy and telephone calls with Arab and EU states followed.

But showing a united EU front on the thorny issue has proved impossible, write Jude Webber, Leila Abboud and Richard Milne.

Context: Ireland, Spain and Norway have announced they will recognise Palestine as a state on May 28, causing dismay in Israel and deepening an existing rift between EU countries over how to react to the conflict in Gaza.

But the divergences don’t stop there: Other countries have been considering the move but have not followed suit. France said it is “not the right time”, while Belgium, Slovenia and Malta are also considering recognising Palestine but at a later date.

France had mounted its own diplomatic push for a united recognition, but Madrid, Oslo and Dublin pushed ahead separately, which Paris has considered as domestically motivated and strategically unwise.

Countries including France and Belgium also believe that it would be better to use statehood recognition as a lever to help end the seven-months conflict.

“This is a card you can only play once, and it should be used to help end the military conflict,” said one European official. “It feels premature for the moment, given that the Palestinian authority is basically a non-state entity, and talks with countries in the neighbourhood and the US are in early stages.”

Lithuania was even more cautious. “We see that both sides are not ready for this solution yet,” said President Gitanas Nausėda. He warned that recognising Palestinian statehood currently could “not only fail to defuse this conflict, but may escalate it even further”.

Martin said yesterday this was “not the end of a process, it is the beginning”. Privately, Irish officials have glossed over the differences among EU states. “Not every country has to agree,” said one.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said yesterday he “take[s] note” of the recognition statements and would “relentlessly work with all member states to promote a common EU position based on a two-state solution”.

But John O’Brennan, professor at Maynooth University in Ireland, saw no prospect of a joint decision — especially with European elections looming next month.

“I don’t see any possibility that this is going to happen at an EU level,” O’Brennan said. “Israel can do virtually anything and Germany still offers only the mildest of criticism.”

Chart du jour: Leaky

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Moscow has been importing luxury cars and other western goods banned in Russia through Belarus, exploiting loopholes in the EU’s sanctions.

Ships in the night

EU capitals are hopeful of agreement on the bloc’s next package of sanctions against Russia in the next few weeks, even as divisions remain over measures targeting Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet of barely legal oil tankers.

Context: EU countries have agreed 13 packages of sanctions targeting Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The measures are designed to crank up economic pressure on Vladimir Putin, reduce funding for his military and pressure him into abandoning the war.

EU member state ambassadors yesterday discussed a new draft of the proposed measures, which also include a ban on re-exports of Russian LNG — the first time the EU is formally targeting Russia’s gas products — in what one person briefed on the meeting described as “a step forward.”

Two people briefed on the discussions said there were divergences on the scale of the measures, but no ideological opposition or uncompromising red lines.

The biggest issue concerns tightening sanctions against the tankers Russia uses to ship crude oil with unverified insurance and murky ownership structures.

Countries including Greece, Cyprus and Malta have pushed back against such measures, arguing that they will just result in the ship operators taking yet more opaque steps to hide their fleets, and ultimately increase the risk of a major shipping disaster — and thus potentially hurt the wider shipping industry.

Individual sanctions on more than 100 people involved in the deportation of Ukrainians from occupied territories and production of arms are also included in the proposed package, alongside anti-circumvention measures to close loopholes in existing sanctions.

What to watch today

1. G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Stresa, Italy.

2. EU ministers for space, research and innovation meet.

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