Philippines warns clashes in South China Sea could spiral into war

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr has suggested his country’s stand-off with China could spiral into war if a Filipino citizen were killed in what have been increasingly violent confrontations with the Chinese coast guard.

Asked how his government would react if Chinese coast guard actions caused the death of a Filipino serviceman, Marcos said: “If not only a serviceman but even a Filipino citizen is killed by a wilful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war.”

Marcos said at an international defence forum in Singapore that the US, which has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines, held “to the same standards”. The president’s comments marked the first time he has suggested scenarios that could trigger a request for help under the 1951 treaty.

Since August last year, Chinese coast guard ships have repeatedly used water cannon against Philippine ships resupplying a military outpost in disputed waters of the South China Sea, damaging vessels and injuring Filipino sailors.

“We already have suffered injury, but thank God we have not yet gotten to the point [of a death]. But once we get to that point, we would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line? Almost certainly,” Marcos said.

The Chinese coast guard’s actions and Manila’s determined pushback have raised concerns the long-running territorial dispute in the strategic South China Sea could trigger armed conflict.

The Philippines regularly sends resupply ships to the Sierra Madre, a rusting former US military vessel it ran aground on purpose in 1999 on Second Thomas Shoal, a sandbank in the South China Sea also claimed by China, and where it has stationed a handful of soldiers.

Since early last year, China has stepped up efforts to disrupt those resupply missions with coast guard and maritime militia ships.

In 2023, Manila said a Chinese ship targeted its vessel with a laser, and last year several ships collided as a result of what the Philippines described as Chinese blocking manoeuvres.

Marcos remarks came after a speech to defence ministers, military chiefs, diplomats and analysts at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in which he described his own country as a protector of a regional security order based on international law and treaties.

“Our efforts stand in stark contrast to a certain actor,” he said, adding that in the South China Sea, the Philippines was “on the front lines” of efforts to preserve the integrity of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs the rights of coastal states.

China’s claim over the South China Sea almost in its entirety clashes with the economic rights and in some cases sovereignty of several coastal states under Unclos, but Marcos has made his country China’s most vocal challenger on the issue since taking office in mid-2022.

He has also reinvigorated Manila’s alliance with the US, overseeing the largest bilateral military exercises in three decades and allowing US forces increased access to his country’s bases. “I do not intend to yield. Filipinos do not yield,” Marcos said.

Marcos asserted the right of the region’s countries to determine their own future rather than being treated as a “theatre” for great power competition. Strategic competition between the US and China was constraining regional nations’ choices and exacerbating flashpoints, he said.

“China’s determining influence [in the region] is a permanent fact,” Marcos said. “But at the same time, the stabilising presence of the US is important.”