ANC faces toughest test as polls signal contrasting results

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ruling African National Congress faces its biggest electoral test on Wednesday as final polls indicated sharply diverging results.

The party that has governed Africa’s most industrialised country since 1994 could return to power with a majority of 61 per cent, an Ipsos survey said on Tuesday. This was in stark contrast to the 55 per cent that South Africa’s Institute of Race Relations, a think-tank, indicated a day earlier.

“This is the most fluid national election to date,” the IRR said, referring to its survey results. Its polling also indicated the ANC could lose a closely fought battle to retain its outright control of Gauteng province, the country’s industrial hub.

Mr Ramaphosa has promised South Africans a “new dawn” after a decade of misrule in the ANC under Jacob Zuma.

The trade union leader turned businessman replaced Mr Zuma, who was beset by corruption scandals, as state president last year. His anti-graft campaign has faced resistance in the ANC, whose leadership he won by a narrow margin.

Both the Ipsos and IRR figures assume a turnout of about 70 per cent in the election, where South Africans will cast votes for the national parliament as well as nine provincial assemblies. The ANC won the last national election in 2014 with 62 per cent of the vote. Parliament elects the state president.

The ANC is primarily pitted against the main opposition Democratic Alliance, a liberal party expected to poll about 20 to 25 per cent. But the ruling party is also facing a threat from the Economic Freedom Fighters, a far-left ANC breakaway. The EFF, led by Julius Malema, may double its vote to more than 10 per cent by drawing away black voters fed up with ANC corruption, mismanagement and high rates of joblessness.

“The polling has been hard to read this time,” said Anthony Butler, a politics professor at the University of Cape Town. But “the ANC tends to rally closer to election day, and we can expect the DA to consolidate” its base, he added.

Lower turnout could punish Mr Malema’s radical party, given its relative reliance on young voters, and favour the ANC.

But a strong national performance and a potential kingmaker role in Gauteng for the EFF would increase Mr Malema’s influence on ANC politics — and spook markets.

Investors have mostly bet on a significant majority for the ANC that they hope would embolden Mr Ramaphosa to pursue deep reforms and remake a graft-plagued state.

Razia Khan, an economist at Standard Chartered, said: “A decisive ANC margin of victory, with at least 60 per cent of the vote, would be seen as positive for South Africa’s broader reform effort.”

However, political analysts and even ANC veterans say that the majority’s size might have little influence over Mr Ramaphosa’s battle to stamp his authority on the party.

Allies of Mr Zuma are high on the ANC’s parliamentary candidate list and are expected to carry on fighting against Mr Ramaphosa’s campaign to clean up state companies and other institutions that were allegedly hollowed out for profit under Mr Zuma.

Mr Ramaphosa has nevertheless vowed that after the elections the era of impunity would end for corrupt officials.

South Africa’s independent election commission has said that it could issue the final result on Saturday. Counting of ballots may unofficially reveal the largest party before that.