Why Trump continues to defy electoral gravity

The writer is a pollster and political strategist

The outcome of Donald Trump’s “hush money “trial could not have been more explicit: every juror found him guilty on every charge — without exception or excuse. The first president ever charged with a felony has now committed 34 of them, verified by his peers, in full public view.

And none of it matters. Trump has survived everything he’s said and everything he’s done. He has survived his own bad behaviour. He has survived his worst critics. The question an increasing number of Americans are asking is: can the country survive four more years of him?

Buckle up. It may be coming. The verdict saw people crashing Trump websites in desperate search of campaign paraphernalia, and Trump himself enjoying his best online fundraising day — not just of his career but of every political career. Or, as the great huckster PT Barnum might have said, $53mn in campaign donations in 24 hours cannot be wrong. 

The fact that Trump led Joe Biden in most national polls throughout the increasingly salacious trial should have been the early warning sign that even a guilty verdict would have little or no impact on the presidential contest. What is now clear is that he’s still in his political prime, and the more chaos he creates around him, the better he does. Every time pundits think, “this time, he’s finally gone too far,” he doubles down, playing the victim card like a master magician, while his support increases.  

As someone who makes a living from understanding the influence of words, even I was stunned by the harshness of Trump’s latest outburst. Within minutes of the verdict, he referred to himself as a “political prisoner” on social media, claimed this was the “darkest day in American history,” trashed the trial for being “rigged,” accused the trial participants and judge for being “conflicted” and “corrupt,” and the Biden Justice Department for “weaponising” its power. And on cue, Trump followers ate it up and regurgitated it on social media to tens of millions. The silent majority are now very loud and very proud.  

Just seconds after the court decision was announced, I hosted two focus groups. While just about every participant agreed with the jurors about Trump’s guilt, there were two significant deviations.

First, almost no one thought the case was worthy of the public spectacle that it generated. Most thought what Trump did is what businesses do every day to hide bad behaviour. And while they did not endorse that behaviour, they did not think it rose to the level of a public trial and the surrounding circus. They blamed the Biden administration for weaponising the courts and the legal system.  

And second, while they agreed with the jury decision, they were nearly unanimous that Trump should not go to jail, even though he was found guilty on all counts. These were swing voters that had supported either Clinton or Biden at some point but all but three asserted that it would have absolutely no impact on their vote. Of the 19 undecided participants, only three switched their vote — and they were so reluctant that they acknowledged they may switch back.  

For much of the past eight years, the former president has evaded or defied the laws of electoral gravity — as well as the actual laws themselves. Until now, no president in American history has said the things Trump has said, or done the things he has done, and survived. The contempt he holds for the legal system and for those who seek to hold him accountable accurately reflect his supporters’ hostility to government, and to the elites who run it. And that explains his phoenix-like rise from the ashes of a failed re-election bid. 

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Trump’s rhetoric is often extreme and divisive, but in a polarised era, his insults don’t really matter and his voters enjoy the entertainment. They parroted his words in my focus group with the self-assurance of someone who knows much less than they think — or should. Trump has convinced half of America that he’s just an innocent bystander, that the court prosecutions weren’t crimes at all, and that Sleepy Joe is simply trying to rig the election. 

In the end, Trump being found guilty of 34 felonies has had no material impact on the election. Few Americans will ever read the indictments or the court’s detailed legal decision. Far more will get their interpretation of what happened from Trump’s own perspective. Worse still are the hysterical condemnations from the pundits who clearly hate him and have since Day One. They have zero impact. Trump’s voters stopped listening to them years ago. 

Once again, Trump’s loudest critics prove to be the ammunition for his most effective weapon — his own voice.