French parliamentary election tracker 2024
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Results and projections
Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party has won 33.2 per cent of the vote in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, according to projections by pollster Ipsos.
The leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance has come in second with 28.1 per cent, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance has secured 21 per cent of the vote.
Speaking from Hénin-Beaumont, her constituency in northern France where she easily won re-election, Le Pen on Sunday hailed a result that she said had “practically erased” Macron’s centrist bloc.
The projections suggest the RN and its allies are on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly and potentially even an outright majority in the final round of voting on July 7.
If the RN were to secure 289 seats in the 577-strong lower house, it would force Macron into an uncomfortable power-sharing arrangement known as a “cohabitation” in which two opposing parties must govern together.
By 5pm local time, 59 per cent of voters had already cast their ballot, compared with 39 per cent in 2022 — making this year the highest turnout at this stage since 1986, according to Ipsos researcher Mathieu Gallard.
Latest polling
Surveys carried out by pollster Ipsos on June 27 and 28 show that the RN is popular with all but the youngest French voters.
The far-right party is also the top choice for France’s most “disadvantaged” voters, who are the least likely to vote for Macron’s Ensemble alliance.
To address concerns about the cost of living, RN has promised to lower value-added tax on energy and fuel, while France’s prime minister Gabriel Attal, who is leading Ensemble’s campaign, has argued against large public spending plans due to the country’s deficit.
Le Pen’s popularity has been rising since 2012, particularly in France’s rural areas, which are most likely to vote for her party.
The outgoing assembly
Despite beating Le Pen in the 2022 presidential election, Macron’s party failed to win an outright majority in that year’s parliamentary vote, forcing his government to strike deals with other parties to pass laws.
The government has at times overridden lawmakers to pass budgets and reforms using a constitutional clause, known as the 49.3, which then exposes it to a no-confidence vote.
The first round of the 2022 legislative elections was predominantly a battle between the centre and the left, with Ensemble in run-offs against the Nupes.
How the National Assembly elections work
The first round of voting takes place on June 30. The top two candidates in each constituency progress to a run-off on July 7. But they can be joined by another candidate who gains the support of at least 12.5 per cent of registered voters in their constituency, meaning turnout is key in this election.
Given the dramatic stakes of the RN being able to claim the prime minister’s office if they win a majority of 289 seats, there will be pressure in the second round on centrist and leftwing parties to strategically drop out in certain districts so as not to divide the vote.
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