Week Ahead: Round one for Biden vs Trump and France’s snap election

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Ding ding. Take your corners for the first debate of the US presidential election on Thursday — although with President Joe Biden and his challenger former president Donald Trump on stage it’ll look like a 2020 rematch. It will probably be the TikTok-able exchanges that grab the most attention among American voters. And as FT columnist Ed Luce writes from Washington, it’s not certain who has most to lose or gain from this mother of all US verbal sparring matches. One truly remarkable fact is that the combined ages of Biden and Trump is two-thirds the age of the country they are duking it out over.

Not to be outdone, across the Atlantic, the two main leadership candidates in the UK general election contest will also be duking it out on the BBC. Given the dire state of the polls for the Conservative party, and one poll even showing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak losing his seat, one wonders how useful this head-to-head will be in changing voter opinion before the campaign’s final week. Could this be the most distorted result in UK election history?

Meanwhile in France, voting will take place this week with the first round of President Emmanuel Macron’s hastily called parliamentary election on Sunday. Polls suggest a strong showing for the far right Rassemblement National. I’d advise reading this FT explainer on likely outcomes.

Away from politics, Paris has a chance to get excited about the Olympics bandwagon arriving in town as the final countdown begins with a month to go until the opening ceremony. In the UK, King Charles is hosting Japan’s Emperor Naruhito with a series of events in central London and Windsor, including a state banquet on Tuesday.

Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist party, will on Monday have his case heard in the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal. Lai and six co-defendants are seeking to overturn their convictions for unlawful assembly following their involvement in an August 2019 demonstration. There are grave concerns about the state of Hong Kong’s judicial system, as expressed in this forceful FT Opinion piece by former Court of Final Appeal judge Jonathan Sumption, who resigned alongside Lawrence Collins as a non-permanent overseas judge on the appeal court earlier this month.

The corporate earnings tap has been turned back on again this week with retail the dominant theme, notably H&M, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Halfords, plus Nike and FedEx. Also watch for a strategy update from Lloyds Banking Group on Thursday. Plus, we will mark the passing of two more businesses from the UK stock market. For some informed opinion on the debate about London’s future as a capital-raising engine, read this.

The economic data run is led by final takes on first-quarter GDP in the US and the UK, plus a smattering of surveys and central banker speeches. Read more below.

One more thing . . . 

Are you watching the footie? As an England fan, I can attest that this is best done with friends, if just to give you some perspective on life being about more than football — God help you if you watch England matches any other way. The FT has its own take on whether we have too much of the sport.

Wednesday is the 28th anniversary of the Euro ’96 semi-final at Wembley Stadium between England and Germany. The teams played out a 1-1 draw before a goalless period of extra time and a subsequent penalty shootout, in which Gareth Southgate missed the Three Lions’ crucial sixth spot kick, allowing Andreas Möller to score the winning goal. I probably need not tell you that Southgate is now the England manager, nor perhaps that his side’s last group game is on Tuesday. Make sure you find your safe space to watch.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Personally, I will be taking the next seven days away from the office, enjoying some post-exam time with my eldest, then taking my middle child on university open-day trips. I’ll leave you in the very capable hands of my colleague David Hindley and will be back in a fortnight.

Economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives an online presentation to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, titled Workers, jobs, growth and inflation — today and tomorrow, which will be followed by a press call.

• Tui Group shares are expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange, following approval by shareholders at the company’s AGM in February.

• US: IMF annual check-up of the American economy

Tuesday

• Germany: monthly construction orders data

• Results: Carnival Q2, FedEx Q4, Saga AGM trading statement

Wednesday

• Australia: May consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• US: Federal Reserve publishes its annual bank stress test results

• Results: AO World FY, General Mills Q4, Liontrust Asset Management FY, Micron Technology Q3, PayChex Q4, Volex FY

Thursday

• Indivior’s transfer of its primary listing to the US becomes effective, following approval by shareholders at a general meeting in May.

• Australia: May labour market statistics

• UK: Bank of England’s report on the stability of the British financial system

• US: final Q1 GDP figures

• Results: Bunzl trading statement, Halfords FY, Currys FY, H&M HY, Lloyds Banking Group strategy update, Moonpig FY, James Latham FY, Nike Q4, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3, Watches of Switzerland FY

Friday

• Global Interdependence Center’s Central Banking Series: Paris. Speakers include Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Thomas Barkin and Bank of France governor François Villeroy de Galhau.

• EU: European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey

• Germany: May labour market statistics

• New Zealand: Matariki. Financial markets closed.

• UK: final Q1 GDP figures plus Zoopla house price index

• US: May personal income and outlays data

• Results: Record FY

World events

Here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Hong Kong: Court of Final Appeal hearing for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist party.

• US: Genaro García Luna, former Mexican secretary of public safety, to be sentenced in a New York courtroom after his conviction of continuing criminal enterprise, conspiracy to distribute narcotics, conspiracy to import narcotics, and making false statements.

Tuesday

• China: World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions begins in Dalian, running until Thursday.

• France: TV debate ahead of voting in the French parliamentary elections, pitching Prime Minister Gabriel Attal against National Rally president Jordan Bardella and left-wing alliance leader Manuel Bompard.

• UK: King Charles and Queen Camilla officially welcome Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako on their state visit. A day in London will finish with a state banquet at Buckingham Palace.

• US: sentencing in a Miami courtroom of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Wednesday

• Russia: hearing in judicial proceedings against Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich due to begin in secret.

• UK: BBC hosts a head-to-head election debate between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour party leader Sir Keir Starmer in Nottingham. Separately, the Glastonbury Festival of music and arts opens in fields near Pilton, Somerset, with crowds of about 200,000 expected.

• US: The Rim of the Pacific 2024 (Rimpac 24) military exercise begins, with 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and over 25,000 personnel taking part in the biennial exercise, this year hosted in Honolulu, Hawaii. It will run until August 2.

Thursday

• EU: European Council meeting of heads of state and government, chaired by the European Council President Charles Michel.

• UK: junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike in the British Medical Association’s ongoing dispute with the government over pay.

• US: CNN hosts the first television presidential debate of the presidential election campaign, between the incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump.

Friday

• Iran: presidential election

• Mongolia: parliamentary elections

Saturday

• Italy: 111th Tour de France cycling race begins with stage one, beginning this year in Florence.

• Mauritania: presidential election

Sunday

• Canada: Princess Anne visits St. John’s for the centennial commemorative events of the Newfoundland National War Memorial and the reinterment of the remains of an unknown Newfoundland First World War soldier.

• EU: Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends. Hungary takes over tomorrow.

• France: first round of voting in the country’s snap parliamentary election