Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin
Sanna Marin, Finland’s prime minister, lost yesterday’s general election to her rightwing opponents © Sergei Grits/AP

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Good morning. A scoop to start: Russia’s security services are confiscating passports from senior officials and state company executives to prevent possible defections, people familiar with the policy told the Financial Times.

And US secretary of state Antony Blinken, who travels to Europe this evening, used a call with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov yesterday to demand the release of journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was detained last week.

Today, I explain why Finns love their prime minister Sanna Marin a little less than the rest of Europe appears to, and hear from China’s ambassador to the EU as he warns Nato not to expand outside its own backyard.

So long, Sanna

It turns out that being the most popular Finnish prime minister in living memory outside of Finland does not help you win elections inside the country.

Context: Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats came third in yesterday’s general election, picking up 43 seats in the 200-strong parliament. That is five seats fewer than the mainstream conservative National Coalition party (NCP), and three fewer than the populist anti-immigration Finns. The other parties in her ruling coalition were routed.

The 37-year-old Marin’s defeat will probably startle many readers who do not follow Finnish politics closely. While she, one of the world’s youngest leaders and the doyenne of the European left, is internationally revered for her progressive views, full-throated support for Ukraine and successful campaign for Finland’s membership of Nato, she was ultimately undone by her handling of the domestic economy.

Whereas her pitch was to keep investing in growth, her rightward opponents pledged to cut government spending. Finns voted with the bloated national debt in mind.

“We must fix our economy,” NCP leader and Marin’s most likely successor Petteri Orpo said last night. “We are a clear alternative to the leftwing government.”

Marin’s defeat has echoes of Sweden’s shift last year from social democrats to thrifty conservatives, as nervousness over the economy trumped other issues at the ballot box.

That may have lessons for other European leaders with one eye on the polls as the continent’s inflation woes roil voters.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez trails his conservative opponents ahead of an election this winter, and the cost of living is a major theme in campaigning for Poland’s upcoming general election.

But even if Marin appears set to lose her seat at the European Council summit table, it is not completely impossible that she ends up remaining in government.

Orpo will be given the first chance at forming a parliamentary majority, and has said he is open to various coalition partners, including Marin’s SDP and the Finns.

Yesterday, EU candidate country Montenegro also turfed out its longtime socialist leader Milo Đukanović, electing upstart centrist Jakov Milatović as president with a handsome margin. That, analysts say, is a harbinger for the country’s parliamentary elections in June.

And to the east, in Bulgaria, exit polls overnight suggested a knife-edge result between the centrist We Continue the Change and the centre-right Gerb party, in the fifth parliamentary election in two years. Initial results are expected today.

Chart du jour: You are what you eat

Bar chart showing Per capita spend on plant-based food, 2022 (€‎)

Sales of plant-based foods across 13 major European markets have grown by 22 per cent over the past two years to a record €5.7bn, according to new research.

Out of area

Should Nato, bound by treaty to defend Europe and North America, be concerned about China? Beijing says that idea is “sophistry”.

Context: Last summer Nato included China in its strategic policy for the first time, describing the country as “a challenge to our interests, our security and our values.” That comes as the US, the alliance’s most important member, pushes its allies to adopt its more hawkish approach to Beijing.

Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the EU, says Nato is going far beyond its competence by taking such a step.

“We urge Nato to really strictly abide by their geographical application and not try to expand its footprint, as they call it, outside the transatlantic area,” he told the FT.

“How do you reconcile this, the regional nature of this organisation with a global approach? We don’t buy that argument. For us, it is mission creep or even sophistry,” he added.

For what it is worth, Nato is not talking about sending aircraft carriers to the Pacific or making Australia a member. The Brussels-based organisation says it must be vigilant regarding China’s advances in cyber, space and other hybrid threats that could pose a danger to its members, and its deepening relationship with Russia.

Fu said that Nato’s recent decisions to include Japan and South Korea in its “Centres of Excellence” training programmes was “quite an alarming development”.

“We are being alert,” he added. “We’ll keep our alertness and see how this develops.

What to watch today

  1. Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis for talks in Bucharest

  2. S&P Global releases its eurozone manufacturing PMI for March.

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